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The time has come for the PCC/APC models to start being implemented, changing the way populations and their scores shape up. With the PCC model now including the additive risk scores for the condition count, CMS has decreased many of the individual HCC risk scores used in the current model—for instance diabetes will see a 14% decrease, with reductions counterbalanced by an increase in other risk scores. The change led us to do a statistical analysis that assessed the impact of these substantial changes.

The recently released CMS Advance Notice 2020 Part 1 may not have many surprises in it, but there are a number of key components that will have far-reaching consequences for health plans. The April 2, 2018 final ruling foreshadowed many of the new changes by confirming that CMS will, in fact, have to implement the 21st Century Cures Act. That means that changes from reviewing and assessing the risk adjustment model will begin in 2019 with full effectuation in 2022 and beyond. In the immediate future, health plans will have to deal with some consequences that range from the good to the not-too-bad to the ugly.